Less Prolific, But More Efficient

June 20, 2008

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Lok-Tin Yao

Less Prolific, But More Efficient

It's a bit of an oxymoron to say that the Patriots offense this year will be better, but the stats and numbers could be down from the record setting numbers of last season. The key will be better efficiency by the offense.

The Patriots offense started off with a bang, scoring 34 or more points per game through the first 8 weeks. In the final 8 weeks, the Patriots only scored more that 30 points 4 times, and only 31 points once in the playoffs. Teams were obviously adjusting their game to give their team a chance to beat the Patriots. Running the ball, defensive schemes of Cover 2, and defensive packages of 5 or more defensive backs. As defenses caught up with the Patriots' offense by daring them to run the ball, Tom Brady & Co. struggled to adjust. We began to see a lot more 3 & outs, less successful lobs to Randy Moss, and much less points scored.

But here are three reasons why this offense will be more efficient if not better:

1. The hurry-up offense will be more effective. We saw a lot less hurry-up offense by the Patriots than usual. It was always an effective weapon of Brady's, allowing him to call his own plays and tiring the defense. But with a overhauled receiving corps, it just wasn't as reliable as years past. It took Deione Branch and David Givens almost 3 years to perfect it in the Patriots' system. It's very difficult for new players to operate in a new system under a hurry up offense because of the audibles at the line and crowd noises. I don't think Donte Stallworth every really completely understood the offense, as his playing time was taken by Jabar Gaffney. This year could see a lot more hurry up offense in games, especially at the start of the game.

2. Josh McDaniels is learning on the fly. As much as success McDaniels has had, he is still very young and new, entering only his third full year as an offensive coordinator. His play-calling became very shotty near the end of the season, as opponents were clearly gearing up for any deep balls. The plays still called on a lot of deep routes. McDaniels was in kid mode, he was so excited with his new toys that he didn't want to try others. I like to call it... He pulled a Mike Martz.

3. Make or Break time for Laurence Maroney and Chad Jackson. Both players drafted in 2006 and only 15 spots from each other, have shown flashes of brilliance and their talent. Maroney has yet to sustain it for a full season, and Jackson has trouble making it onto the field though. Entering their third year, they must prove they can produce a solid full season and justify their high draft positions. Maroney is fast, but he needs to get more physical and more decisive. Jackson has excellent ball skills, fast, and tall, but needs to make it onto the field and earn playing time. They both should be motivated to make their presence on the team felt.

I'll run off some predictions: 500-520 total points (EASYILY), 38-42 passing tds for Brady, 1,200 yards by Maroney, 16-20 reception TDs for Moss, and 800 yards and 7 TDs for Jackson.

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