After completing my first mock draft, I pulled my head from out of the hole and opened up my eyes. The first version I make my predictions based solely on my evaluations. All the rumors and constant rise and fall of player stock I have no interest in because it can change dramatically before April.
By April, a lot of player movement has settled down and it’s easier to project a player’s value. Think about it. From the end of the college football season to now, the top ranked prospect changed from Da’Quan Bowers, to Cam Newton, to now either Marcel Dareus or Patrick Peterson.
If I’m lucky, I won’t have to produce a third version. Player stock is pretty much locked in place and any injury issues have come to a conclusion. Unless a seismic development comes up (like a blockbuster trade), this is my mock draft, and I’m sticking to it.
1. Carolina Panthers - QB Cam Newton, Auburn
Newton won at the Junior College level and at the Division 1 level. Though not a finished product, the Panthers take Cam and hope in a year or two he makes Carolina winners as well.
2. Denver Broncos – DT Marcel Dareus, Alabama
The return of DE/OLB Elvis Dumervill will boost the pass rush. New head coach John Fox has an appreciation for strong D-line play, thanks to his years with DE Julius Peppers and DT Kris Jenkins at Carolina. Fox tries to re-create that in Denver.
3. Buffalo Bills –OLB Von Miller, Texas A&M
OLB Aaron Maybin has given Buffalo practically nothing in two years. The Bills try again to find the pass rush threat the defense lacks.
4. Cincinnati Bengals – DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina
Cincy will call QB Carson Palmer’s “trade me or I’ll retire” bluff and grab a bookend to play opposite of last year’s impressive rookie DE Carlos Dunlap.
5. Arizona Cardinals – QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
‘Zona plans to acquire a veteran passer once a collective bargaining agreement is in place. But it’s not a sure bet that veteran will be a long term solution. Gabbert will wait his turn before getting his shot.
6. Cleveland Browns – WR A.J. Green, Georgia
The Browns will go as far as QB Colt McCoy will take them. With back-to-back wins over New Orleans and New England, Colt is on his way. With an elite receiver to throw to, McCoy and Cleveland can go far quickly.
7. San Francisco 49ers – CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
The secondary is in dire need of a playmaker with Nate Clements aging. Peterson could become the best player out of this draft, as he’s rated the top prospects in the minds of some talent evaluators.
8. Tennessee Titans – DT Nick Fairley, Auburn
The team that took Albert Haynesworth again takes the chance on a supremely talented DT. Tennessee had a lot of success at getting the most out of D-linemen. The coaches could do the same for Fairley.
9. Dallas Cowboys – CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska
The secondary should had been a strength for the Cowboys, but CB Mike Jenkins hasn’t lived up to his potential, while time might be catching up to CB Terence Newman.
10. Washington Redskins – DE/DT J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
The defense, in a word, was horrible. The ‘Skins need help at almost every position. Watt will fit into head coach Mike Shanahan’s 3-4 seamlessly.
11. Houston Texans – DE Cameron Jordan, California
New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will convert the defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4 front. Jordan’s athleticism will have the Texans trying him at end and as an OLB to see how Jordan best helps the team.
12. Minnesota Vikings – DT Corey Liuget, Illinois
The Vikes prepare for life without the “Williams Twins.” Pat will turn 39 in October while Kevin will turn 31 in August. There’s also the concern of a possible suspension for violating the league’s banned substance policy.
13. Detroit Lions – OT Anthony Castonzo, Boston College
If the Lions’ coaches don’t want another QB Matthew Stafford season curtailed by injury, Detroit must secure the pocket. Boston College has a solid reputation for producing offensive lineman and Castonzo could be the next great Eagle in the pros.
14. St. Louis Rams – WR Julio Jones, Alabama
QB Sam Bradford impressed the Rams by making his receivers better as a rookie. St. Louis rewards Sam with a wide out that can make Bradford better. Jones, with a healthy Donnie Avery, would make the Rams offense dangerous.
15. Miami Dolphins – RB Mikel Leshoure, Illinois
RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are free agents. At least one won’t be back, if not both. Leshoure’s stock is up because he has prototype size and doesn’t have a knee concern like Mark Ingram.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
The list of disappointments keeps growing: Derrick Harvery, Quentin Groves, Aaron Kampman. Jacksonville doesn’t want to blow it again. Even with Bowers available, his knee injury scares the Jags enough that they go with Kerrigan.
17. New England Patriots – DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
By the end of the season, injuries sapped the Pats’ depth along the D-line. They had to sign DE Eric Moore mid-season. Next time three D-linemen go on injured reserve, the Pats will be better prepared.
18. San Diego Chargers – DE/OLB Aldon Smith, Missouri
OLB Larry English hasn’t developed into the Shawn Merriman replacement the Bolts hoped for. Antwan Applewhite had his shot as well, but didn’t wrestle the starting job away. Aldon is next in line with the opportunity to mirror Shawn Phillips.
19. New York Giants – OG/C Mike Pouncey, Florida
A team that looks loaded, needs a little insurance in the middle of their formidable offensive line. Both Shawn O’Hara and Rich Seubert are recuperating from offseason surgeries. Pouncey can backup at three spots and become a starter down the road.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DE Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson
The Bucs catch a falling star. Bowers was considered a top-10 pick until issues about his surgically repaired knee caused Da’Quan’s stock to plummet. TB had only 27 sacks last year and takes the chance that Bowers will be productive a pass rusher.
21. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Tyron Smith, USC
In the Chiefs last two games, QB Matt Cassel completed 39 percent of his passes, passed for 185 yards total, and was sacked eight times. KC should do what they can to keep the pass rush away from Cassel.
22. Indianapolis Colts – OT Nate Solder, Colorado
Just because QB Peyton Manning was sacked just 16 times, it doesn’t mean he wasn’t under pressure. The Colts also want to be more physical to improve the 29th-ranked run offense.
23. Philadelphia Eagles – OG Danny Watkins, Baylor
As a youth growing up in Canada, Watkins played hockey. He was a goon, on the ice to rough up opponents. He still has that nasty attitude, will play to the whistle and give the extra shot when he has the chance. The Eagles will love that.
24. New Orleans Saints – OLB Justin Houston, Georgia
In their Super Bowl-winning season, the Saints had 35 sacks and were third in turnover ratio with a plus-eleven. That dropped to 26 sacks and a 23rd-ranked minus-6 turnover ratio. Having a player that can consistently pressure the quarterback will help reverse the trend.
25. Seattle Seahawks – QB Jake Locker, Washington
Head coach Pete Carroll is familiar with what Locker can do when Carroll coached at USC and Locker played for the Huskies. Carroll invests in Locker’s potential.
26. Baltimore Ravens – OT Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
The offense is approaching elite level, but the offensive line is holding the Ravens back. The unit allowed 40 sacks last year, tied for ninth most allowed. QB Joe Flacco continues to improve and will be better with Carimi as a protector.
27. Atlanta Falcons – OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
The Falcons want to improve the pass rush (31 sacks last year) and need to fill an OLB position because three from last year’s roster are free agents. Ayers has the versatility to help in coverage and be an effective blitzer.
28. New England Patriots – RB Mark Ingram, Alabama
Needing to replace three aging, veteran free agent ball carriers, the Pats nab the former Heisman Trophy winner to split carries with BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
29. Chicago Bears – OT Derek Sherrod, Mississippi State
Instead of defending QB Jay Cutler about his toughness, the Bears decide to defend their franchise passer by grabbing a blindside protector. Cutler absorbed 52 of Chicago’s 56 sacks allowed last year.
30. New York Jets – DE/DT Muhammed Wilkerson, Temple
Wilkerson really improved his stock during the evaluation period. DE Shawn Ellis continues to produce but the 12-year veteran might is heading into the twilight of his career. It would be wise to find his successor.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers – CB Jimmy Smith, Colorado
Time and time again great passing offenses have carved the Steelers secondary. It would be worth Pittsburgh’s time to find an improvement over incumbent CBs Bryant McFadden and Ike Taylor.
32. Green Bay Packers – DE Cameron Hayward, Ohio State
Long time Packer DE Cullen Jenkins is a free agent and might not be back with the team next season. Hayward can help immediately as a run defender and adds depth to a young and active D-line.
Oakland Raiders
Oakland’s first selection is 48th overall in the second round. They need to address a run defense that finished 29th in the league. No one expects CB Nnamdi Asomugha, a free agent, to re-sign so his replacement is needed. And it’s still unknown if the Raiders will stick with their lot at QB or draft a franchise passer.
Questions? Comments? Send to talktome@randolphc.com
Keywords: Adrian Clayborn, Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Marcel Dareus, Mark Ingram, New England Patriots, NFL Draft, Robert Quinn, Von Miller
