In a Rush for a OLB

Outside linebacker. A pass rusher. Someone that can consistently collapse the pocket with speed and/or power. It’s a position fans want the Patriots to draft early. We believe a double-digit sack-meister would take the defense to the next level, make it a championship-caliber unit.

Head coach Bill Belichick couldn’t disagree more. He believes sacks are overrated and is more interested in a player that will 1. stop the run, and 2. consistently pressure the quarterback.

While I agree with Belichick to a degree, I want an OLB that will regularly take down the QB, not just brush by the passer. In other words, someone that will finish the job. Great QBs complete passes while under pressure. They can’t complete passes lying flat on the ground.

Belichick might want to re-think his approach. Take away the 2001 and 2002 seasons because the Patriots played in a 4-3 defense those seasons. Using statistics from ProFootballReference.com, from 2003-2010, any season the Patriots advanced in the playoffs, the linebacker position accumulated more than 20 sacks.

During this period, whether they reached the Super Bowl or won a Wild Card game, the LBs combined for at least 21 sacks. In the last three seasons, the ‘backers came up short and so did the team as they were on the outside looking in in ’08 and had one-and-done appearances the last two playoff trips:

Year            LBs sacks
2003 *             21.5
2004 *             27.5
2005 ^             22.0
2006 ^             21.0
2007 *             27.5
2008                10.0
2009                17.0
2010                18.5

* reached Super Bowl
^ won one playoff game

The sack totals isn’t just the outside ‘backers. These include sacks from the two inside linebackers as well.

Disclaimer time: The 21 sacks by linebackers benchmark isn’t a universal standard. The Patriots aren’t as aggressive as other 3-4 defenses, so teams like Pittsburgh and Green Bay would have much higher totals than the Pats. I wouldn’t even consider sacks by linebackers as a reliable statistic that indicates whether the Patriots defense is good or not. But it’s surprising to see the consistent correlation between the stat and success.

Only twice during this period did a player bag at least 10 QBs (Vrabel with 12.5 in 2007 and Tully Banta-Cain in 2009). So it’s not a matter of having that one player that’s nearly unstoppable from the edge.

Certainly the Patriots have tried over the years, signing free agents Rosevelt Colvin in 2003, Adalius Thomas in 2007 and acquiring Derrick Burgess in 2009.

They even looked through the draft, selecting Ryan Claridge, Jeremy Mincey, Justin Rogers, and Shawn Crable over the years. Jermaine Cunningham is the first OLB selected by Belichick in the second round, so many hope Cunningham dramatically improves on his one sack rookie year.

But Pats fans want a stud. They want someone that will cause havoc on every snap; a player that can bring down the quarterback in three seconds, before the passer can load and fire a pass off. The best chance of drafting a potential stud is in the first round.

Many people believe the Pats blew it in 2009 when they had the opportunity to take Clay Matthews. Instead New England traded out of the first round and accumulated picks for ’09 and ’10.

For what it’s worth, the Patriots turned those extra picks into CB Darius Butler, TE Rob Gronkowski, and receivers Brandon Tate and Julian Edelman (I might be in the minority, but I’ll take the four players over one).

But drafting a great pass rushing OLB in the first or second round isn’t a guarantee. Since 2003, 23 3-4 OLBs were selected in the first two rounds. Nine had at least one 10-sack season, two became solid pros, two seem serviceable players, and four are unmitigated busts. Three players from’09 are on the cusp of being ruled busts. It’s too early to judge the ’10 class.

The 21 sacks by Patriot linebackers might just be a statistical anomaly. The consistency of the pattern just might be due to the small sample size. I won’t say 21 sacks by Patriot linebackers equals playoff success is a fact, but I’d rather the Pats be on the plus side just in case.