Raiders' Wrench in Patriots 2011 Draft

Remember back in 2009 how we thought the Patriots pulled another fast one on the Oakland Raiders when New England traded DL Richard Seymour for a 2011 first round draft pick? Remember calling the Raiders “suckers” because we though the Pats would get a high draft pick for a player that maybe had a couple of good years left?

Guess the Patriots aren’t as clever as we thought. It looked like a sure thing at the time, but give credit where credit is due. Oakland reversed their eight-year losing trend and is contending for the playoffs.

The first thought is Oakland is a team you don’t want to face in the playoffs with their ranked second run offense at 162.2 yards per game. But looking ahead you curse their success because as the Raiders climbed the standings, that first round draft pick dropped.

I drew the line at the sixth pick overall. If Oakland’s selection was the sixth pick or above, the Patriots robbed the Raiders like when they traded a fourth round pick for WR Randy Moss in 2007. If it was seventh or lower, Oakland got the better of the deal.

Why sixth overall? Because Seymour was the Pats’ sixth overall selection in 2001. The idea is to come out ahead or at least get equal value in a trade. So since Seymour was sixth overall, you want at least the sixth pick in return.

Clearly getting equal return is out of the question already. In the AFC alone there are eight teams with less wins than the Raiders. Figure in the NFC (including the pathetic NFC West) and that’s 17 teams with four wins or less.

That means, as of right now, Oakland’s pick will be no better than 18^th overall, a far cry from the expected top-5 pick we thought we’d get from Oakland.

The Pats could still get a great player with that selection, right? Let’s take a look back at the last five 18^th overall selections, not including the 2010 18^th pick overall, C Maurkice Pouncey:

·         2009 - OLB Robert Ayers hasn’t been the pass rush force (1.5 sacks) Denver hoped he’d be.

·         2008 - QB Joe Flacco has established himself as a rising franchise passer for Baltimore.

·         2007 - CB Leon Hall is half of one of the best CB tandems in the league with the Cincinnati Bengals.

·         2006 - LB Bobby Carpenter has been traded and released, unable to secure a role in Dallas and Miami.

·         2005 - DE Erasmus James is an unquestionable bust after four years in the league.

Of course the draft is hit or miss no matter where a team makes a selection. Over those five years the Raiders took WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (2009, 7^th overall), RB Darren McFadden (2008, 4), QB JaMarcus Russell (2007, 1), S Michael Huff (2006, 7), and CB Fabian Washington (2005, 23).

But it’s not about the player, but where Oakland selected: four top10 picks, two in the top five. And if you go one year deeper, they took OT Robert Gallery second overall in ’04. That’s five out of six years in the top 10, three out of six top five.

That was what New England gambled on when they traded Seymour for that 2011 first round pick, an 83 percent chance of getting a top 10 pick, fifty percent in the top five. Great odds to take, but this time the Pats lost.

New England can still get a quality player in the 2011 Draft. The scouting department led by Nick Caserio and Floyd Reese has been outstanding the past two years. But the “can’t miss” players might be just out of reach.

So if you were dreaming of Mark Ingram as the next franchise running back, or Robert Quinn the dominant pass rusher missing since the days of Andre Tippett, or Julio Jones or A.J. Green as the big play receiver the offense is missing without Randy Moss, well those dreams are on the verge of getting sucked up by an invigorated Black Hole. The end zone Raiders fans have a team to cheer about finally.

And Patriots fans aren’t laughing at Oakland now.

Elsewhere, read my take on the return of Logan Mankins to the Patriots lineup.