Hours Before Kickoff: Week 6

I’ve heard that sometimes a great offense is a good defense. Well the inverse is true too: sometimes a great defense is a good offense. I think that’s partially what is in mind with the change of offensive philosophy.

It’s no secret that New England’s defense is nascent. Shoot, some of the players still haven’t lost all of their baby teeth yet. While there’s no time to be patient with the D, the offense can do the defense a favor by using more clock, making the game shorter.

Opponents will attack the weakness, which is the pass defense because New England’s pass rush is lacking. We’ll still see pinball scores because the Pats ultimately have to outscore to win. But if the offense is winning the time of possession game, the defense will spend less time on the field and still have surprises in store later in the game.

For instance, let’s say a team can run up to 60 plays on offense in a game. And the time of possession is even at 30 minutes per team. That means a team ran two plays for every minute of possession.

So for every minute of T.O.P. the Patriots have in their favor, that’s two less plays the defense has to defend. Still with me?

Alright, so let’s say New England’s offense is really on top of their game and already held the ball for 30 minutes with still a quarter left to play. That means the opponents ran just 30 offensive plays. The defense is still fresh and the coaches haven’t used all of their plays yet.

Every week the defensive coaches select the plays best suited for their opponents. They will also design new plays and tweak their staple plays in hopes it will catch the offense off guard. If the defense plays less, there’s a better chance the plays that could really confuse the offense can be saved for later, causing havoc at the most opportune time.

Back to the hypothetical game. It’s the fourth quarter and the Pats defense forced a third and long. And the defense has been on the field for 36 plays so far. The coaches finally decide to run the LB twist blitz they hadn’t used all game. Because it was unexpected, the play works and the opponent doesn’t convert. With about 12 minutes left, the Patriots’ offense can begin to put the game away.

If the defense is on the field more, and getting shredded, the coaches would feel the urgency to use their new plays earlier to stop the bleeding. That would mean the opponents see some of the new plays before. If they recognize it coming a second time, they might figure out a counter for it later in the game.

Protecting the defense probably isn’t the reason behind the offensive change. It might just be a side-effect the coaches didn’t put much thought into. But anything to ease the burden on a struggling defense is a good thing.

A few things I’m looking for:

Dink and Dunk: Hogwash. Going deep isn’t just 40 yards or more downfield. They can work the deep middle of the field with the tight ends and receiver crossing routes.

Go Long: The offense might have a hard time scoring. Special teams must to make it hard on Baltimore. P Zoltan Mesko and the punt coverage has to make the Ravens start deep in their own territory frequently.

Showtime: We might see the full portfolio of Ray Lewis Old Spice commercials. It’s a great scent for a body wash he’s pitching for what it’s worth.

Enough with the RB Ray Rice 83-yard touchdown run! It won’t happen again. The accumulation of plays will give the Ravens the edge needed to defeat the Patriots.