Hours Before Kickoff: Week 3

Two weeks into the season, DE Gerard Warren leads the Patriots in sacks with two. That would be reason for optimism for a 4-3 defense. But for a 3-4, it’s an anomaly. The OLBs should own that category in a 3-4. The good news is Tully Banta-Cain is right on Warren’s heels with 1.5 sacks. The bad news is they combine for 3.5 of the Pats’ four sacks.

Expect that total to spike against Buffalo. In two games last season New England collected 10 sacks against Buffalo and Banta-Cain led the way with five. The Bills passing offense is the worst in the league this year and they allowed seven sacks.

By 4:15 Sunday afternoon, the pass rush will look rejuvenated. But don’t buy the performance. Think about it: if it wasn’t for the two games against the Bills, the Patriots would have had just 21 sacks in 14 games in 2009.

Early impressions of the pass rush are depressing. They don’t get consistent pressure, even when blitzing. TBC is trying to beat the snap count to get a step on the offensive tackle. It’s a risk-reward gamble as if he guesses wrong, Tully gets flagged for offsides.

On the other side, there’s…um…ahhh…

If you guessed Rob Ninkovich, you win nothing, so pat yourself on the back. I gots nuthing fo’ ya. Ninkovich works hard, but he doesn’t consistently turn the corner. So far his lowlight is missing a tackle on Jets RB LaDanian Tomlinson that resulted in a 31-yard gain. He’s been a near-non factor and is at risk of losing his starting job to Jermaine Cunningham.

The rookie didn’t play in week one but he flashed some ability to beat his blocker against the Jets. Hopefully that wasn’t just a one game thing as the Patriots need someone that can consistently collapse the pocket on teams other than the Bills.

It would be what the Patriots drafted Cunningham for. He was New England’s third selection in the 2010 Draft (second round, 53^rd overall), addressing a dire need after releasing Adalius Thomas and Derrick Burgess couldn’t make the team in part-time preseason work. Cunningham has his work cut out for him if he’s to replace the eight combined sacks by Thomas and Burgess.

One idea is utilizing Gary Guyton as a pass rusher. This tactic was revealed in the preseason and should resurface at some point this season. He’s the team’s fastest linebacker and has experience as an OLB from his days at Georgia Tech. But it’s a wait and see approach to see if Guyton can be a part of the solution.

Another spice to add to the stew could be Shawn Crable. Yes, that Shawn Crable. “Scrap Heap” Shawn Crable was released before the preseason and signed to the practice squad after the preseason. He showed promise his rookie year, picking off a pass and getting a sack in the 2008 preseason. But that means nothing for a player yet to play a down on defense. Two seasons on injured reserve makes Crable a huge question mark instead of a clear solution for the pass rush woes. If Crable is signed to the active roster, it hints of frustration by the coaching staff as they search desperately for a solution.

Sunday would be a good day to experiment against a porous O-line. Sorry if Harvard product QB Ryan Fitzpatrick gets turned into a human piñata for the afternoon, but the Patriots coaching staff is still learning about the abilities of their players. Figuring out the best pass rushers would go a long way towards improving the defense.

A few things I’m looking for:

Spread Offense: WRs Julian Edelman and Brandon Tate and TE Rob Gronkowski each had one catch last week. They need to be involved to develop a role on the team.

Sub Runs: NT Vince Wilfork expressed disappointment at the defense’s inability to stop the run with substitution packages. Will they do a better job this week?

Fresh Start: Former Pat RB Laurence Maroney will play for Denver this week. He never satisfied New Englanders yet averaged 4.2 yards per carry. We’re curious how he plays for the Broncos.

They played two close games last year with just eight points the total margin of victory. If the Patriots don’t win by more than 10, the fan base will grumble with trepidation.