Looking Ahead

November 18, 2009

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Randolph Charlotin

Looking Ahead

After the Patriots’ loss to the Indianapolis Colts, the first thing I did when I started my car was turn off the radio. I almost didn’t turn on my t.v. When I did, I absolutely didn’t tune in to ESPN or NFL Network. This lasted through the next day until the Monday night football game. I didn’t read the newspapers for almost two days.

 

Yes, I was disappointed by the loss, but more than anything I didn’t want to hear television’s talking heads compete in the “I can sound more outrageous than the other guy” competition or catch knee-jerk reactions on talk radio or through print media.

 

Two days later, it was still the talk of the town as people chose sides in the argument. Whether head coach Bill Belichick is still a genius or now is an arrogant doofus is your opinion. At this point, I’m done with it.

 

This argument of Belichick’s decision has been blown out of proportions because of Patriot Nation’s dislike of QB Peyton Manning. It’s a tough loss, but losing to the hated Colts and the commercial face of the NFL left many feeling sick. Feel free to call the ill effects the Manning Migraine.

 

But look at it for what it is. This was a loss to the best team in the AFC. Sure it has playoff implications, but this won’t determine home field throughout the playoffs. There’s no way the Colts will be caught from behind, even if the Patriots win the rest of their games. Indy’s two-game lead will be insurmountable.

 

New England’s battle is with the rest of the AFC in hopes of securing second place in the conference. Right now the Pats are still in great position to wrestle it away from the surprising Cincinnati Bengals or Denver Broncos. If the teams finish with identical records, tie-breakers will determine who gets the higher seed.

 

The first tie-breaker is head-to-head. That’s a problem because the Patriots already lost to a banana-dressed Broncos team in week five. The good news is Denver has stumbled in three straight losses since racing ahead with a 6-0 record. The head-to-head tie-breaker is moot between Cincy and N.E. as they didn’t play each other. The league will then use divisional record to break the tie.

 

Which makes Sunday’s game against the New York Jets more important than the Patriots-Colts game. New England already lost a game to the Jets, making the Pats 2-1 the first time through the AFC East. Cincinnati meanwhile, is 5-0 against the AFC North, including sweeps of Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Now is the time to start praying the Cleveland Browns pull off an improbable upset in week 12.

 

If Denver continues to spiral out of control, that clears the path for New England. With games remaining against the Jets, Buffalo Bills, and Miami Dolphins, the Patriots must sweep and hope the Bengals lose to the Browns. If New England forces the tie, there’s still a chance for a playoff bye week as the tie-breaker goes down to common opponents (Baltimore, Houston, Denver, New York Jets ; N.E. 1-2 with Houston still to play, Cincinnati 2-2 with Jets remaining) followed by strength of victory (Cincinnati .508 New England .389) and strength of schedule.

 

There’s still a chance to win second place outright, as tough games against Minnesota and San Diego remains on the Bengals schedule. Two second place teams, the Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers, will be watched closely. But if neither wins their respective division, the Patriots will have the edge as long as they remain atop the AFC East.

 

There’s no time to dwell on the Colts. There are bigger challenges and more important games left to play. While it felt like a playoff game, playoff losses don’t have seven games remaining.

 

Questions? Comments? Send to talktome@randolphc.com.

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