Camp Countdown

The top five story lines for the 2009 season as training camp kicks off:

5. The Apprentice

Bill O’Brien appears to be on the same track as his predecessor, Josh McDaniels. O’Brien was promoted to offensive assistant, probably a step away from becoming the offensive coordinator.

Much of the offensive responsibilities will be on his shoulders, with Bill Belichick looking over one of them. He hasn’t earned full autonomy, but if O’Brien does a great job with the offense, he will earn the right to make all the calls possibly by the end of the season.

One would think success with the components on offense would be easy, but McDaniels set the bar really high before taking the head coaching job in Denver. Besides directing the record-setting offense in 2007, McDaniels turned Matt Cassel from a veteran four-year chief clipboard operator into a starting quarterback in the matter of one season.

Expecting that O’Brien will do similar things with Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and new third receiver Joey Galloway is unfair to O’Brien. But if New England doesn’t consistently put points on the board, then O’Brien isn’t doing a good enough job.

Moss is on the record saying this offense could be better than the 2007 unit. As if O’Brien doesn’t have enough pressure on him.

4. Backfield Rotation

The running back corps might have the best depth since the record-setting crew from 1978. The top three could be starting on other teams, but they will take turns gashing defenses.

Sammy Morris will again be the power back. A healthy Laurence Maroney can slash through zone blocking for chunks at a time. And new arrival Fred Taylor is a considerable upgrade over LaMont Jordan.

This could be a make-it-or-break-it year for Maroney. Fans, including me, were hoping he’d get replaced because Laurence was hurt often. Last season’s shoulder injury, which cost Maroney 13 games, was seen as the last straw. Fortunately the coaching staff has more patience.

Maroney is frustrating because his talent is obvious. Fans want to see him succeed, but Laurence has to be on the field to do so. Laurence has to be assertive to the hole instead of Hammer-timing behind the line. More importantly, Laurence has to stay healthy. Because if Maroney can’t stay on the field, the two other running backs could make Laurence insignificant.

3. Competitions

While all jobs are up for grabs, with entrenched veterans trying to hold off challengers, there are three vacancies available to the best players.

New England is looking for two cornerbacks and a starter at outside linebacker. May the best men win.

A party of five corners will fight for two starting positions: veteran free agentss Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden, 2008 draft picks Terrance Wheatley and Jonathan Wilhite, and 2009 draft pick Darius Butler. The early favorites probably are the veterans, but the pups will be on heels of Springs and Bodden, angling to snag a role in the secondary.

Of equal importance is finding a linebacker opposite Adalius Thomas. Since the off-season trade of Mike Vrabel, a distinct move to secure a new starter wasn’t made. Instead the holdovers from last year (Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable, Vince Redd), plus the return of Tully Banta-Cain, will conduct a battle royal until someone emerges.

There’s still the possibility of a move to add another contestant to the competition. Besides a late veteran arrival, rookie DE Stryker Sulak, a sixth round draft pick waived by Oakland, is visiting with the Patriots. Whatever the case, steps must be taken to improve a pass defense that had just 31 sacks and allowed 27 passing touchdowns.

2. Contracts

According to all sources, NT Vince Wilfork will not hold out during training camp, despite not reaching an agreement on a new contract. Wilfork has one year remaining. If the two sides don’t reach an agreement, Wilfork becomes a free agent at the end of the season and could sign with anybody.

Vince’s demands don’t equal the $100-million blockbuster signed by Albert Haynesworth, but Wilfork wants a serious bump in pay. As of right now it’s a stalemate. Because of the lack of progress, Wilfork opted not to attend any of the voluntary off-season workouts. But when mini camp was mandatory, Wilfork was right there with the rest of his teammates.

I’m not an expert in the game of negotiations. But whether a player held out or reported on time, contracts get done. The act of good faith on Wilfork’s part may not influence the negotiations either way. It’s just a matter of the two sides finding that middle ground. They could reach an agreement whether Vince is or isn’t there.

I distinctly remember when Richard Seymour held out. Whether that was the difference or not, Seymour got an extension before reaching a long-term deal a year later without missing much time. Again Seymour has a year left on his contract, but this time he isn’t expected to hold out. The difference is a matter of years.

When Seymour held out in 2005, he was 25 and in his prime. He already had three Pro Bowl selections and was regarded as one of the best at his position.

Even though Seymour was arguably the best lineman on the team last year (maybe the Patriots’ best defender, period) and led the Patriots in sacks last year, despite not playing on passing downs regularly, Seymour will turn 30 this year. Players are expected to begin their decline in performance around this age. Seymour lost his best leverage.

There’s also the issue of health. Before playing in 15 games last year, Seymour missed seven games in 2007 and four in 2005. That was a lot of money the Pats invested in a player that was part-time. They won’t do it again.

With Seymour playing for a contract and Wilfork waiting for his, the Pats apparently approached the 2009 Draft in preparation of having neither on the team next year. Three DTs over two days accounted for a quarter of New England’s picks. I don’t want to see either Seymour or Wilfork go, but it’s a business. If the Pats don’t think they can afford both under the salary cap or if the monetary demands too exorbitant, New England will do what’s best for the team.

1. The Return of Tom Brady

Even though the Patriots finished the season 11-5, everyone knows that Brady makes the team better. Heap all the praise you want on Cassel and McDaniels for what they did last year. Having Brady on the field will make last year’s fifth-ranked offense even better.

No wonder Moss already believes this year’s offense could be better than the 2007 unit. The backfield is better, with Taylor joining Morris and Maroney. Joey Galloway will be the third receiver, an explosive target like Donte Stallworth was. And, of course, Brady is back. What’s not to like?

There is reason to curb the enthusiasm, due to Brady playing on a reconstructive knee. As bad as the injury was, it couldn’t had happened at a better time: game one of the 2008 season. This gave Brady maximum recovery time. With the exception of the infection setback, every update said Brady was ahead of schedule with his recovery.

Tom will wear a brace this season as a precaution. And while Brady is physically recovered, the mental recovery can’t be fixed until he plays in actual games. He has to develop confidence to plant and throw, block out the pass rush and focus downfield, not have anxiety when moving around in the pocket, and fearlessly stand and deliver, even when he knows he’s going to get hit.

Brady might not have much to worry about in the season opener. The Patriots welcome Buffalo’s anemic pass rush (24 sacks last year) to Gillette Stadium. After that, the pressure comes fast from the New York Jets (41), and elite edge rushers John Abraham from Atlanta (16) and Baltimore’s Terrell Suggs (8).