To no surprise, the Patriots attached the franchise tag to QB Matt Cassel. And in even less of a no-brainer, Cassel accepted the one-year tender of $14.6 million.
Don't go shopping for that fleet of candy apple red Hummers yet, Cassel. You'll get paid, just don't expect the sum you signed for.
New England tagged him with a non-exclusive franchise tag, meaning Cassel and his agent are free to negotiate a long-term contract with any team. If a team signs Cassel, that team owes the Patriots two first round draft picks.
The Pats will never get two first round picks from any team for Cassel. But the door is wide open for trade offers.
This situation feels like a matter of "when" not "if" Cassel gets traded. All signs indicate Tom Brady will be ready for the season opener. When you have a two-time Super Bowl MVP and the 2007 league MVP returning healthy, even from a serious injury, do you really need insurance like Cassel? It would be a hell of a luxury, but the reality is the Patriots won't be able to afford to pay two QBs starter's money and fortify a team that lacks depth at linebacker and corner back.
The problem is establishing a trade value for Cassel. While it's obvious he has starting ability, Cassel still only has one season of playing experience. His performance screams out multiple picks, including a first. But most teams will try to acquire him at a discount price.
So where should the bidding start? A more than fair baseline is what Atlanta got for QB Matt Schaub. When they traded Schaub to Houston, the teams switched places in the first round of the 2007 Draft and the Texans threw in two second round picks -- one in 2007, the other in 2008.
But Schaub didn't have nearly the resume that Cassel produced in 2008. Schaub had started two games (both losses) and threw just 161 passes. No one can compare that to Cassel's 16 games played (15 starts) and 3,693 passing yards. Schaub's five touchdowns and four interceptions was worth two second round picks. What's the value of 21 TDs and eleven Ints on a 11-5 team?
That's worth a top-five pick and then some if you ask me. I'd rather someone who did it at the pro level than some wide-eyed rookie with loads of potential but zero guarantee of becoming a pro level QB.
Just don't think any of the teams at the top of the draft will give up their pick for Cassel. Because Cassel's performance is from just one year, some teams will hesitate. It would be an easy decision if Cassel had two productive seasons under his belt.
Just because Scott Pioli is running Kansas City, don't think he will do Bill Belichick the favor of giving up the third pick overall and a couple more picks for Cassel (though a second and TE Tony Gonzalez would be a great start).
What about a QB-needy team outside of the top 10? A gutsy team would pull the trigger, but others would sweat it out some. Teams fall in love with potential and hate passing up the chance to draft the next...
I get the feeling that if New England gets a first round pick from any team, it will be a 2010 first round pick with additional picks in this year's draft. It won't be the haul Dallas got when they sent RB Herschel Walker to Minnesota, but a first and a second should be where negotiations start.
