Wanna Trade, Cleveland?

December 30, 2008

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Randolph Charlotin

Wanna Trade, Cleveland?

Boy, we don't even get a chance to let the fact that the Patriots are out of the playoffs for the first time since 2002 soak in before the team is involved in off-season news.

On Monday, three teams fired their head coaches, with two of the head men out of work have Patriots ties. Rod Marinelli was canned after a 0-16 season with Detroit, snitch Eric Mangini was let go by the Jets for missing the playoffs two out of three years, and Cleveland had enough of Romeo Crennel after 40 losses in four seasons. Crennel and Mangini were both former defensive coordinators for the Patriots.

The day before the Browns served Romeo his pink slip, they fired general manager Phil Savage. Wasting no time, the Browns asked an received permission to talk to New England vice president of player personnel Scott Pioli about a position with Cleveland.

If Pioli takes the job, then I wish him luck. He's earned the chance to run a football team and have final say on player acquisitions either in free agency or through the draft.

But if the Browns get Pioli from us, I want Crennel back. Maybe he won't be the defensive coordinator because the Pats currently have Dean Pees as defensive coordinator and Dom Capers as a special assistant/secondary coach, but I want Crennel's hands back and involved in the day-to-day coaching and preparation of the defense.

Even though last year New England's defense ranked sixth in passing and first in rushing, I felt the defense was insulated by the record-breaking offense. Without the huge leads the defense typically played with, the truth would come out, which was the defense wasn't as good as the numbers suggested.

This year gives some truth to my gut feeling. The pass defense dropped from sixth to eleventh in '08. The decline was even more dramatic for the run defense, from first to 15th.

Defensive numbers aren't what's most important, though. Bill Belichick would rather have a defense that bends but doesn't break. In other words, teams could go up and down the field, but keeping the opponents from scoring matters most. That's done by red zone defense and turnovers.

In that regard, the '08 defense was the worst in the last eight years. They allowed 25.6 points per game (eighth) and were just +1 (15th) in turnover differential. This chart puts it in better perspective:

Year   pts/gm (rank)   +/- (rank)
2008    25.6 (8)         +1 (15)
2007    17.1 (4)        +16 (3)
2006    14.8 (2)         +8 (4)
2005    21.1 (17)        -6 (20)

The defense overall was better in Crennel's four years as Patriots defensive coordinator:

Year   pts/gm (rank)   +/- (rank)
2004    16.3 (2)         +9 (7)
2003    14.9 (1)        +17 (2)
2002    21.6 (17)      +10 (10)
2001    17.0 (6)         +7 (9)

But even more telling is red zone defense, an area the Patriots were terrible at this past season. Opponents thrived when they got inside the 20, scoring at a .933 rate! That's embarrassing! Makes you wonder how the hell did the Pats win eleven game being as generous as they were. Two-thirds (.667) of the time opponents scored touchdowns, which ranked the Patriots as 31st in the league. It wasn't a red zone, it was a red carpet.

It hasn't been much better in the last three years:

Year     pct     TD pct (rank)
2007   .732     .585    (27)
2006   .743     .343     (2)
2005   .875     .563    (27)

And vs. the rankings under Crennel:

Year     pct     TD pct (rank)
2004   .653     .408     (3)
2003   .761     .391     (4)
2002   .815     .630    (30)
2001   .816     .388     (3)

Considering all these teams went to the playoffs with the exception of the 2002 team, it seems fair to say the defense was better under Crennel's guiding hand.

But it's more than just numbers. In the past the Patriots defense was known as a physical unit. They were big and intimidating. They lacked swagger, for obvious reasons - they couldn't back it up on the field.

I don't know if Crennel has anything to do with the defense's attitude, but they need to restore their confidence. Having a healthy Richard Seymour helps, but it's more than that. Changes need to be made as more youth infuses the D with speed and aggression. LB Jerod Mayo and S Brandon Merriweather are just the beginning. Finding a shut-down corner with a short memory would allow more creativity by the D coordinator to mix coverages. A rush linebacker or two to create consistent pressure, get sacks, and force turnovers would greatly aid a suspect secondary. And an emphasis on the fundamentals, particularly tackling, would keep running backs from breaking long runs.

Having Crennel back would get the Patriots get back to being the tough unit opponents groaned when lined up across the ball from. Get him back in some capacity. The defense can't slip much farther, but improving the defense would be the difference between not just getting to the playoffs, but advancing once there.

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