Playoffs or Draft?

About a couple of weeks ago, I was talking with a co-worker about the current state of the Patriots. He suggested that maybe the team would be better off tanking for better draft position as opposed to trying to get into the playoffs because they'd probably get bounced out early.

Quit? You kidding me? The Patriots know first hand that anything can happen in the playoffs. What if this streak New England is on carries the team all the way to the Super Bowl? It happened before. I'd take any chance at the championship as opposed to no chance.

Besides, how much more valuable is a top half first round draft pick instead of a late first round pick? How much of a better player would the Pats draft if they tanked instead of being a one-and-done playoff team?

Let's speculate. To be generous, I'll rewind the clock to just after the loss to the Steelers. If the Pats lost the rest of the games, they would be 7-9. On the other side, I'll go with my prediction of a 10-6 season.

Last year there were seven 7-9 teams that selected between 9-15. Four of the five 10-6 teams had picks 22-25. The remaining one was the Giants, and we know what happened with them.

Anyway, picks nine through 15 were:

9.   LB Keith Rivers - Cincinnati
10. (from New Orleans) LB Jerod Mayo - New England
11. CB Leodis McKelvin - Buffalo
12. OT Ryan Clady - Denver
13. RB Jonathan Stewart - Carolina
14. OT Chris Williams - Chicago
15. OG Branden Albert - Kansas City

As for picks 22-25:

22. RB Felix Jones - Dallas
23. RB Rashard Mendenhall - Pittsburgh
24. RB Chris Johnson - Tennessee
25. CB Mike Jenkins - Dallas

Let's break it down. A few rookie seasons were cut short due to injury. So cross out Rivers, Jones and Mendenhall from the comparison. Instead of the Patriots' Mayo, I'll slide New Orleans back into the 10th slot and their selection of DT Sedrick Ellis. That's about as fair as possible. Time for the side-by-side part. First the early guys:

• Ellis has 25 tackles and three sacks on the 20th-ranked defense in the league.
• McKelvin started the last five games and picked up two interceptions (one returned for a TD) and four passes defensed in those five starts. But he's been a bigger contributor as a returner, leading the league in kickoff return yardage and second in average (minimum 30 returns) with one touchdown.
• OTs Clady and Albert pretty much started every game for their respective teams. Denver allowed eleven sacks so far, while K.C. gave up 33.
• RB Stewart is half of the league's fourth ranked rushing offense. He's contributed 751 of the team's 2,045 yards and nine of 25 touchdowns.

And the late arrivals:

• RB Johnson exploded onto the scene with 1,418 total yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns. He's been selected for the Pro Bowl.
• CB Jenkins has played a reserve role all season, but did defend three passes and returned his only interception for a touchdown.

Thanks to more players, the first group has the advantage in productivity. But comparing apples to apples, it's much closer. Johnson out-gained Stewart while McKelvin has been better than Jenkins.

Picking in the top half of the draft isn't dramatically better than making selections in the 20's. The fact doesn't change even if you go further back in time.

As far as I'm concerned, I'd rather the Pats get into the playoffs because they can still get a good player out of it. The Sporting News ranked the top 99 prospects for the 2009 draft, including possible junior entries. Based on the Patriots' current needs, there isn't much difference between DE/OLB Auston English of Oklahoma and George Selvie of South Florida or CBs Mike Jenkins of Ohio State, Darius Bulter of Connecticut, or Kevin Barnes of Maryland.

So if the Patriots sneak into the playoffs as the sixth seed...great! When the '09 draft rolls around, I'm confident New England will draft the right player for the team. It would be like cake with frosting on top.