I don't like this match-up. This isn't paranoia carried over from last week's comeback win over a bad Seattle Seahawks team. Oakland is about as bad as the Seahawks. This Patriots-Raiders game has me very concerned because the Raiders can run the ball.
Say what you want about Oakland. Dysfunctional. Disjointed. Out of touch. Inexperienced. Bad dancers. Throw out as many negatives you can think of. The Raiders can pound the ball with the best of them, ranked 10th in the league.
It starts up front with a massive and physical offensive line. They average 311 pounds and can maul opposing defenses. Sure they can't pass protect. But if they can keep pile-driving paths for the running backs to exploit, the quarterback won't have much to worry about.
And it's not a mistake that I used the plural for running backs. Injuries held the unit back some this year, but Oakland has an assortment of ball carriers to attack defenses with. First there's Justin Fargas, a steady runner that will get the most out of every carry. He's followed by Darren McFadden, a runner big enough to break tackles but is blessed with speed to produce big gains. Bringing thump to the backfield is Michael Bush, a 245-pound bruiser that can get the tough yards, yet is nimble enough to be more than just a short yardage specialist.
These three ball carriers should be the primary concern for the Patriots defense. If the Pats can stop them, New England should win the game.
The question is whether the defense can execute well enough to make the Raiders offense one-dimensional. The Pats are just 15th in rush defense and will miss a few key players. LBs Tedy Bruschi and Pierre Woods are out. S James Sanders is doubtful. And DE Ty Warren is 50-50. Last week New England had their problems trying to control Seatle's 19th-ranked ground game. How will they fare against a run-first offense?
And even if the Pats stop the run, they don't pass rush well. The Pats got one sack against a Seattle O-line that allowed 31 sacks before last week's game. Oakland allowed 32 sacks before last week's loss. Will New England have to blitz often to create pressure?
Here's a few things I'm looking for:
Doctor's Note -Two more starters (Bruschi, Sanders) might miss today's game. For the substitutes, it comes down to Bill Belichick's mantra for individuals: Do your job.
Mayo and Friends -Since his 20-tackle performance, rookie Jerod Mayo averaged just six total tackles the last three weeks. Mayo and the returning LBs (Junior Seau and Rosevelt Colvin) must return to their standards quickly.
Identity Check - The Patriots can't afford to play to the level of their competition. From start to finish, it must be Patriots football. Get an early lead, build on it, then put your adversary away.
No one knows how QB Matt Cassel will play with a heavy heart. The coaches might take the game out of his hands and put it on the shoulders of the running backs to wear down Oakland's 30th-ranked run defense. It will be the safest route to a Patriots win.
