While the national media goes on and on of whether the Patriots can psychologically recover from losing Super Bowl XLII, I've have a feeling coming into this season that I've told to everyone within earshot that I will share with you:
The will be better than last year.
Yeah it's not earth-shattering, but I'm still talking about a defense that ranked fourth overall last year. It wouldn't leave much room for improvement, but there were three teams ahead of the Pats in the rankings.
It's easy to point to the off-season losses as for why they won't be as good. Losing CB Asante Samuel will hurt. CB Randall Gay was serviceable as the third corner. When healthy, OLB Rosevelt Colvin came up big in crucial moments and provided a good pass rush opposite of OLB Mike Vrabel.
Those losses are a little overrated. I was a fan of a healthy Colvin, but he missed 26 games with the Pats. When LB Adalius Thomas shifted from a member of the ILB rotation to OLB from week 13 through the playoffs (eight games), Thomas had 5.5 sacks. Colvin had four sacks in twelve games. If that production continues for Thomas, combined with good health, Thomas projects (eleven sacks) to have a better season than Colvin's career best (10.5).
It's not fair to assume that Vrabel will have another 12-sack campaign considering he averaged 5.25 a season before 2007. Factor in age for both Vrabel and Thomas and their numbers could go down. But I expect a spike in production for the defensive line.
NT Vince Wilfork established himself as one of the best at his position last year. He anchors a line that will have a healthy Richard Seymour to start the season and Ty Warren, who I expect to produce like his 2006 season (84 tackles, 7.5 sacks). Rotate in Jarvis Green and Mike Wright for pass rush purposes and New England has one of the best and deepest defensive lines in the league.
If they wreck havoc as I expect them, teams won't come close to averaging 98.2 rushing yards a game. Even more, the pass rush will collapse the pocket and make the secondary's job much easier.
In regards to the secondary, the weakest link of the D, they do lose a great play-maker in Samuel, but he doesn't deserve all the credit for his 16 interceptions over the past two seasons. Almost half of those he owes to the coaches for devising the right scheme and calling the correct play at the right time. Basically, they put Samuel in position to make plays. He just did his part. I'm sure the coaching staff can do the same with the 2008 secondary.
My confidence in the coaches springs from the addition of Dom Capers as secondary coach. He was the defensive coordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers from 1992-94 and made it a dominant force. The "Blitzburgh" defense finished third and second overall in Capers final two seasons and was the backbone for a team that reached the AFC Championship. Capers will get the best out of the secondary as well as the linebackers in coverage.
Last year was the first time ILB Tedy Bruschi played more than 10 games and didn't have one interception. His two passes defensed were his least since 2001. Bruschi is 35 years old and will be playing his 13th season. He isn't as quick as he used to be and he won't play forever.
That's why the coaching staff went into the draft intent on bringing in new blood and getting faster. They started with Jerod Mayo, drafted Shawn Crable in the third, and added Bo Ruud in the sixth round. All three were clocked between 4.5-4.6 in the 40-yard dash. Even the addition of Victor Hobson helps since he's seven years younger than Bruschi.
The same can be said for SS Tank Williams as he plays behind 35-year old Rodney Harrison, but I won't go into detail of why I love the Patriots signing Tank and Hobson. I'll save that for another day.
Last year the record-setting offense hid the weaknesses of the defense because for the most part they forced opponents to be one-dimensional and predictable. But teams that ran the ball effectively and stuck with it gave the Patriots the most problems.
The offense probably won't be as high-scoring, but the luxury will be they won't have to be. The defense will make the plays they failed to make last year. It won't be just a case of beating up on the lowly teams on the schedule, the easiest schedule in the league.
When they play Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Seattle and San Diego, they will find out the for themselves that the Patriots defense didn't pad their stats.
