Hours Before Kickoff: Week 16

For pretty much all season, the Patriots had the worst pass defense in the league. If the two-week trend continues, they will have a league worst rush defense to match.

The Denver Broncos repeatedly gashed the D for 252 yards. The week before the Washington Redskins plowed their way to 170 yards. What was a decent run defense for 13 weeks became generous, as if they have the Christmas Sprit.

Despite allowing more than 400 total yards per game, New England allows 21.2 points per game, 15th in the NFL.

Bend but don’t break? You got it. It’s been good enough for an 11-3 record. But will this work in the playoffs?

B.B.D.B. defense is typically a recipe for failure in the playoffs. Sure the defense can take advantage of lesser teams by forcing turnovers or red zone field goals. It worked so far, though not without some close calls.

Think about some of the teams that had good offensive games against New England. Denver, notoriously slow starters, put up 16 points with just 16:10 elapsed. Washington almost tied the game on the final drive, but still poured in 27 points. Indianapolis made the fourth quarter look like 7-on-7 drills as they scored 21 points. Buffalo buried New England under 34 points. And Miami couldn’t match New England’s firepower as they petered out at 24 points in the season opening shootout.

Only Denver has a winning record of the group, but ranks 20th in scoring at 20.9 points. The other teams are a combined 17-40. Defensive flexibility was good enough for four wins out of five against those teams.

But will it be good enough in the playoffs? The biggest threat to the Patriots’ defense is Green Bay, which is ranked third in red zone TD percentage at 62.7 percent, according to TeamRankings.com. Five slots behind the Packers is New Orleans, which is ranked eighth at 57.1 percent.

To get to either team, New England has to get through the AFC. Houston isn’t the same team without QB Matt Schaub. Baltimore (21st, 48.9) and Pittsburgh (18th, 51.1) relies on strong defenses to make up for mediocre red zone offenses.

That could change when on the field with New England. The Pats’ defense allows 44.5 percent on third down. This feeds a red zone scoring percentage, which is a robust 50.9 percent. Average offenses can get a lot better with these numbers in their favor.

Is it too late to fix these flaws? Switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 shored up the run defense against Denver, but it’s not guaranteed to work for every team. The Patriots also lost their best pass rusher in Andre Carter for the year with a quad injury. He will be hard to replace, if it’s even possible.

It will make the bend but don’t break defense a little more challenging. It might not break, but the leak is obvious.

A few things I’m looking for:

Independence Day: The offensive fireworks will still light up the scoreboard, but it will be within reason this time.

Burned by Bush: The defense didn’t heed the warnings of the last running back coming into the game with consecutive 100-yard games. Hopefully they learned a lesson.

Ageless: A tip of the hat to DE/LB Jason Taylor. He is in his 15th year and remains productive, as he’s second on Miami with six sacks and a forced fumble. New England’s quarterbacks won’t miss you when you finally walk away.

Expect less back and forth. The Dolphins are playing well of late, but the Patriots will put them away in the second half.