Patriots On the Run in 2011 and Beyond

The best news Patriot fans heard recently besides the approaching end of the NFL lockout is the health or rookie Marcus Cannon’s recovery from non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. The 354-pound offensive lineman says he is almost done with his chemotherapy.

Better yet, Cannon says he was able to maintain his weight and strength through his chemo treatment. Marcus is hopeful to participate in training camp, whenever that begins. The Patriots will settle for a clean bill of heath.

The Pats are looking forward to Cannon throwing his weight around, though. As the rest of the league leans in favor of passing more, New England is reestablishing the run offense to be balanced offensively. It was an approach that led to playoff success in years past and head coach Bill Belichick intends to regain that standard.

In the three championship seasons, New England ran the ball at least 47 percent of the time. When the Pats were balanced offensively, they advanced deeper into the playoffs:

Regular Season

Year    run/pass          Run pct          YPC
2001*   473/482              50                   3.8
2002    395/605              40                   3.8
2003*   473/537              47                   3.7
2004*   524/485              52                   4.1
2005#  439/564              44                   3.4
2006^   499/527              49                   3.9
2007+  451/586              44                   4.1
2008    513/534              49                   4.4
2009    466/592              44                   4.1
2010    454/507              47                   4.3

* Won Super Bowl
^ Lost AFC Championship
+ Lost Super Bowl
# Lost Divisional

Two aberrations to explain: ’07 was the record-breaking aerial attack led by QB Tom Brady’s 50 touchdown passes and WR Randy Moss’ 23 TD receptions. And in ’08 the offense was led by first time starter Matt Cassel.

New England lost their last two playoff appearances to division rival the New York Jets. Last year was the first in three Brady-led seasons the Patriots run percentage was greater than 44 percent. It’s an encouraging trend.

Several roster changes reflect the change in direction offensively. It began with the overhauling of the tight end position. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez were drafted in the second and fourth round respectively. And Alge Crumpler replaced Chris Baker as the blocking TE.

The difference with Crumpler and Gronkowski is obvious as they are better blockers than the players they replaced (Ben Watson left for Cleveland as a free agent). Hernandez is the wild card as he’s an athletic mismatch for linebackers with his quickness. Hernandez in the slot typically draws an additional defensive back.

That defensive adjustment favors the Patriot offense when they run the ball. Hernandez can overpower corners and safeties with his 245 pounds. With this trio, Belichick has the versatile tight end-centric offense that failed in 2006 with Watson and Daniel Graham.

The other changes happened early in the season as Moss and RB Laurence Maroney were traded. Brady favored Moss too much and it was affecting his decision-making. Maroney meanwhile never lived up to the expectations of a first round draft pick.

With the downfield threat gone and the timid runner sent packing, New England was rebuilt like the teams during the dynasty period. WR Deion Branch was brought back and paired with Wes Welker, just like when Branch and Troy Brown were Brady’s favorite targets. And RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the hard-nosed grinder like Antowain Smith and Corey Dillon were.

This year’s draft class reinforces the desire to be better running the ball. First round pick Nate Solder is tall and athletic with room to pack more pounds on his frame. Cannon has the size, strength, and agility to be a steamroller. And TE Lee Smith is an excellent in-line blocker that will be like an additional O-lineman on the field.

Behind the blockers are two no-nonsense running backs that waste no time hitting holes and getting upfield. Shane Vereen has scat back speed and quickness with a north-south approach. And Stevan Ridley will hammer away between the tackles and wear down defenders.

Establishing the run could be quite difficult this year. RT Nick Kaczur might be released because New England doesn’t believe Kaczur is worth his pay. RG Stephen Neal retired, LT Matt Light is a free agent, and Pro Bowl LG Logan Mankins is hoping a win in the Brady vs. the NFL lawsuit breaks the franchise tag chains and makes him a free agent.

That’s possibly sixty percent of last year’s starting offensive line gone. With an abbreviated training camp, it will be tough to establish chemistry along the O-line in time for the season opener.

And a balanced offense doesn’t mean anything if the Patriots can’t get the tough yards when they need it. They shouldn’t be passing on fourth-and-2 against an undersized Indianapolis defense like they did in 2009. New England might have to get through the likes of Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and the Jets to get anywhere in the playoffs. Winning short yardage situations will determine the outcome of games against those teams.

One thing is certain. The New England is being built to run the ball.