2010 New England Patriots Defensive Off-Season Preview

As we sit here on January 21st it seems like the 2010 NFL season is a lifetime away. There will be many moves made between now and the start of training camp, and probably even more made between training camp and the opener in September, so while it is both foolish and presumptuous to predict what will happen over the next seven months it will make me feel somewhat better seeing what needs to be addressed.

First things first. It is absolutely imperative that Vince Wilfork is re-signed, preferably to a long term deal that keeps him with the Patriots for the next four years. I don't know how you can justify not locking up Wilfork long term. I drink the "In Bill We Trust" Koolaid as much as anyone but here's a guy who is a consumant professional, playing what is the most important position in the 3-4 defense, and is the best player at a position you're already thin at. Wilfork and Mayo should be the foundation for the Hoodie Pats D version 2.0. Wilfork must be retained, even if by the dreaded Franchise tag.

The Patriots played almost as many snaps defensively in their nickel and dime sub-packages as they did in their base 3-4/4-3 defenses so let's breakdown what roles will open up and who might step up or be brought in to take them.

DEFENSIVE LINE

Assuming Wilfork is locked up, he and Ty Warren will anchor the line. I don't think Jarvis Green is likely to be re-signed, leaving a hole at starting RE. You do have Mike Wright, Myron Pryor and Ron Brace as backup players, but none are the ideal Richard Seymour mold that is ideal for RE in the 3-4 (a mold that Green did not fit anyway). Look for a potential move there in the draft or in Free Agency.

In sub-packages Tully Banta-Cain and Derrick Burgess often were pass rushers with their hands down along with Green and Wright. Look for Banta-Cain to be re-signed and Burgess to leave, while Pryor should fill Green's pass rushing DT role. This leaves an open slot for a rookie pass rusher who would not have to take on much run responsibility. This could be the perfect way to break a new DE/OLB prospect in without needing him to worry about coverage, and he would come at a cheaper price (and with probably more effective results) than Burgess. Shawn Crable could be a wild card for this spot as well, but as we've learned about the only thing you can count on him for is to be put on IR. Rob Ninkovich will contribute some in pass rush situations as well.

LINEBACKERS

Ch-ch-changes are coming at linebacker. Long thought to be Bill Belichick's specialty they were a mix-and-match group this year. Mayo and Guyton led the way at ILB. Expect Mayo to regain his 2008 form after his knee returns to health this off-season. Guyton should be a nickel linebacker and was out of position playing SILB in the base defense where he struggled in the run game. Expect Tyrone McKenzie to return from injury and take over as the SILB thumper besides Mayo on run downs. He will come off the field in passing situations for Guyton, setting up a solid young trio of linebackers on the inside. A draftee at ILB might not be a bad insurance policy should McKenzie suffer a setback, so keep your eyes on rookie ILBs that are 6' 2" - 6' 4" and over 250 pounds.

Outside is where things get interesting. Most assume it's a safe bet that Adalius Thomas is going to be cut but to be honest I am not completely sold on this. In hindsight keeping Mike Vrabel and trading Adalius would've been the better move last offseason. Thomas became a run stopping OLB in '09, something that Vrabel could still do while bringing better Patriots-style leadership. If the Pats cut Thomas they're going to be severly shorthanded with run-stopping OLBs.

Banta-Cain struggled stopping the run while Pierre Woods, who should be re-signed, seems more suited for special teams work, though he's an average option at early down OLB if necessary. But without Thomas the Patriots would really be left without a three down OLB on the roster. Not that Thomas was a three-downer but he is the closest thing they've got to one, and probably their best run stopper (which isn't saying much).

It's rare to see an rookie OLB come in and be able to play all three downs, more often than not they can rush the passer and that's about it. So OLB looks to be the biggest question mark of the off-season for the Patriots, especially when you factor in the horrid pass rush and the projected departures of Thomas and Burgess. If Thomas stays at least he gives you some stability there, albeit at a hefty price tag.

What we know for sure: TBC should be a priority re-sign, but should be limited to pass rushing situations only. The development of Shawn Crable, Pierre Woods, and Rob Ninkovich could play a factor but hoping one of them blossoms into a three-downer is probably a stretch. There should be at least two solid additions at OLB otherwise the Pats could be in for another season of toothless pass rush and lost containment.

SECONDARY

I might be the only Patriots blogger willing to say that I don't think there will be any huge changes in the Patriots secondary despite some suspect play. We heard rumblings of Shawn Springs being a bad locker room guy so I'm expecting him to be released. Leigh Bodden was the best corner this year, expect him to be re-signed to a multi year deal with the money saved by cutting Springs. Darius Butler looks ready to take over at starting LCB. Whipping boy Jonathan Wilhite will be give another chance at nickel but expect him to see competition from rookie/free agent additions.

The safeties had their moments, good and bad, in 2009, but the foursome of Brandon Meriweather, James Sanders, Patrick Chung and Brandon McGowan bring a lot of options to the table and should only get better as their communication and experience (and tackling, Meriweather) improve. Ultimately there are too many other holes on the roster, especially on D to make any splash additions at safety. This group has potential and they are physical more than anything. If Meriweather continues to progress he could be a star. But he still has some ways to go despite getting a Pro Bowl nod in '09.

While McGowan looked like the steal of Free Agency early on in 2009 he faded to a situational role by the end of the season in favor of James Sanders. The starting spot next to Meriweather will no doubt be up for grabs and I expect Pat Chung to make a serious run. Chung has the intensity of a young Rodney Harrison, and if he blossoms into a more significant role he could provide some badly needed leadership. If all else fails James Sanders will be back.

SUMMARY

The Pats must re-sign Wilfork, then Tully Banta-Cain. Then they will have decisions to make on Adalius Thomas and Derrick Burgess that will likely be tied to what they see at OLB in Free Agency and the draft. While the secondary is in decent shape, a quality cornerback should not be passed up in the draft. Expect more additions to the defensive line and hope that Pryor and Brace have excellent off-seasons.

Biggest Questions (after Wilfork is locked up, one way or another):,

1. Who starts at RE in the base 3-4 defense? Mike Wright is probably the current on-roster option, but probably better as a backup.

2. Who are the run stopping base OLBs? If Thomas is cut, and Burgess walks, the cupboards are pretty bare. A three-down OLB who can rush the passer and stop the run should be priority number one this offseason. Look for multiple additions to be made as Coach Belichick takes the throw it at the wall approach (like he did with WRs in 2007, and DBs in 2009).

3. Will Springs return/Will Wilhite get another chance? Two offseason additions at cornerback should improve the secondary that should see Darius Butler and Leigh Bodden as starters.