5 Keys: Patriots vs. Colts

What a difference a year makes. In 2007 the Colts and Pats were both undefeated, headed into the most hyped NFL game in history that wasn’t a Super Bowl.  Now in 2008, the Colts are below .500 and though the Pats are 5-2 they’re without some of their most key players. Despite the new look and records of both teams, this should still be a fantastic football game in an electric atmosphere and will be the biggest test in young Matt Cassel’s career.

I’m not going to sugar coat it, my Pats fan bretheren; the Colts should win this one. They need it more, they’re (supposedly) getting Bob Sanders and Joseph Addai back and they’re facing a severely depleted Patriots team that has struggled with giving up the big pass play. The Colts season is basically on the line this weekend so it’s hard to bet against Peyton Manning under these circumstances, even for a die hard Pats fan such as myself.

The Patriots might be underdogs in many people’s view but that doesn’t mean they can’t pull out a W, and as we all know, if anyone could do it, it’s Belichick. The Keyz for what they need to do…

1. Dealing with Dallas – As Mike Reiss of the Boston Globe pointed out today Rodney Harrison was the one charged with shutting down Indy’s dangerous tight end Dallas Clark last year. Without Harrison someone else will get the unenviable task, as Clark is one Colt who has been consistently solid this year. If we look back to 2006’s playoff game, when the Pats were without the service of Harrison, they gave little-used Eric Alexander his first ever start in an effort to shut Clark down (which he didn’t do, the Colt tight end had 137-yards receiving).

This year they have a few different options. While Reiss thinks it will be Brandon Meriweather who plays down on Clark, I disagree. The Pats are too thin at safety to play Meriweather close to the line like they did with Harrison. That would leave Antwan Spann playing deep coverage on Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison and that’s really not a favorable matchup.

I believe the Pats will rotate who covers Clark. Adalius Thomas should have the speed to stick with Clark on early downs and on later downs we might see rookie Gary Guyton on him. This might be a tall task for the rookie but he’s responded well to every challenge so far, it’s time to take off the training wheels.

One thing is for sure, Bill Belichick will dial something up to contain the vaunted Colts offense, and with the personnel the Pats have left, some rookies are sure to be involved.

2. Stop the Run with the D-Line: The Pats Run D has been solid all year long if you don’t count the Wildcat embarrassment with the Dolphins. Ronnie Brown has been the only running back to break 100 yards on them. While the Colts are ranked 32^nd in rushing they will be getting a boost if Joseph Addai returns. The D-line must stop the run, whether the Pats open in a 3 or 4-man front. With Manning’s dangerous arm the Pats cannot afford to bring eight or even seven men into the box.

Ellis Hobbs, Deltha O’Neal, Jonathan Wilhite and Mike Richardson will all be under the microscope this week. Looks like we’ll find out if they’ve corrected the giving-up-the-big-pass problems.

3. Run Like the Wind – It looks like Lamont Jordan will be back for the Pats and the timing couldn’t be better. Not just because the Colts Run D is ranked 26^th, but because early on this season Jordan looked like the best of the Pats running back bunch.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis will get some carries as well, and we all know that Kevin Faulk is a noted Colt Killer. All three will need to contribute if the Pats are to have a shot at this thing. The Patriots will need to establish the running game to take the pressure of Matt Cassel somewhat. However the good news is…

4. Remember the Titans – the Colts stacked the box to stop the Titans vaunted running attack and that forced Tennesee to win with the not-so-vaunted dink-and-dunk passing. Guess who else is an expert at the dink-and-dunk? That’s right, Matt Cassel. I expect a heavy dose of short passes, especially if the Pats can’t get the run game going. The loss of Colts CB Marlin Jackson for the season will surely help make things a bit easier for Matty C.

It’s safe to assume that the Colts will try to bring pressure, pressure and more pressure on Cassel with Freeney and Mathis. The line will need to be on their game and Cassel will need to get through his reads faster than he ever has before. He’ll need to get the ball out quick and let his playmakers do the rest.

5. Win – a win for the Pats this weekend would be as big of an upset as they’ve had in a long time. Not just because Matt Cassel will have taken down the mighty Manning, but because sending the Colts to another loss, and effectively putting another huge nail in their 2008 season coffin would be especially satisfying without Brady, Maroney, or Harrison. The Pats have their work cut out for them, but 6-2 would be an amazing start and set them up for a huge divisional game next weekend against Buffalo.