The first thing that I'm looking for on Sunday is how much time Tom Brady has in the pocket. I think that over everything else will be the ultimate predictor of how the game will go. If Brady has time he's going to find the open receiver and the New England Patriots will score more than Eli Manning even if he plays the game of his career. If the New York Giants are able to get to Brady, force him into bad throws, make him move outside the pocket, this could be a game.
If they aren't able to do these things it could be a long day for the Giants, especially given the field conditions and how the Pats have performed when weather is not a factor. All the other variables - Brandon Jacobs establishing the run, Randy Moss' catch total, Eli's interceptions or lack thereof - all take a back seat to the Giants pass rush getting to Brady. If they don't the Patriots offense is more than capable of putting up over 40 points, something I don't think the Giants offense is capable of on their best day - which was about how they played in December the first time against the Pats. Eli played nearly lights-out, the Pats Defense was soft - they still only put up 28 on offense (not including the Special Teams TD).
My prediction? The Giants will get pressure on Brady but not consistently enough to force him into mistakes. The Pats will be prepared to deal with the pass rush and run enough play action and quick pass plays to keep the Giants honest. Randy Moss has been waiting to play in this game for too long to only have one catch. He will be a factor. As impressive as Eli Manning has been I'm just not sure if he's gonna be able to keep it up, especially on a stage like the Super Bowl. Remember Donovan McNabb puking during Super Bowl 39? The Patriots have been here, many of them multiple times, and they have shown all week that they know how to play in this game. I think that counts for a lot and ultimately that will be the difference.
New England Patriots 38, New York Giants 17
MVP: Tom Brady (4 Tds)
