Patriots/Jaguars Comes Down to This

The media is pretty much in agreement as to how the Jacksonville Jaguars can beat the New England Patriots this weekend. Star running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor must control the game, something that seems possible against New England's aging middle linebackers Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau who have at times appeared susceptible to the run this year. If the Jags can run the ball consistently, they will keep the Pats vaunted offense off the field and give themselves a solid chance to win. However history is not on their side.

Since the Patriots first Super Bowl run in 2001 New England has only given up an average of 93 rushing yards per playoff game. Only three times in fourteen games have they given up over 100 yards, against Pittsburgh in the 2004 AFC Championship (163), against San Diego in last years AFC Divisional game (156) and against Indianapolis in last years AFC Championship (125). Yet the Pats still won two of those three and probably should've won all three of them if not for the meltdown at Indy.

Traditionally New England's defense has buttoned up when January rolls around. Clearly winning playoff football begins with shutting down the run and the Pats have been able to do that. Though much has been made of the Pats linebackers being old and slow, very little is being said about their defensive line. Richard Seymour, Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork are all first round picks and more than capable of winning the battle in the trenches. This makes the job for Bruschi, Seau, Mike Vrabel and Adalius Thomas that much easier. Seymour is just starting to return to his Pro Bowl form after missing the first six games rehabbing off-season knee surgery. Wilfork is going to his first Pro Bowl. Warren came into his own last year and has had another solid year. Let's not forget about Jarvis Green either who did a great job filling in for Seymour at the start of the season and comes off the bench in pass rush situations, or if the Pats open up in a 4-3 defense which is always a possibility. Their D-line is young and powerful and the main building block from which Bill Belichick contructed this defense.

If the Pats shut down Jacksonville's running attack odds are likely that they will win the game. They are a veteran team that knows how to win in the playoffs, especially at home where they haven't lost a playoff game since the Pete Carroll days. The Jaguars will need to establish the run early and often. If the Pats D plays like it has in past postseasons they will struggle to do so and the game will be put in David Garrard's hands. Will he be able to match Tom Brady and the Pats offense? It doesn't look like it.