While I enjoy reading Mock Drafts from around the internets I would never claim to know the true needs of the 31 NFL teams that actually lost a regular season game in 2007. The Patriots are what I know and in the two months since the perfect season fell to pieces two minutes before its culmination I have immersed myself in all things draft related. I know the Pats roster inside and out. I know when contracts expire. I know who’s poised to break out and who’s getting old. Most of all I know trying to predict what the Patriots will do on draft day is futile. So if this ends up being totally wrong don’t hold it against me.
First, I am operating under the following three assumptions:
1) These players will be off the board:
Chris Long, DE Virginia
Jake Long, T Michigan
Glenn Dorsey, DT LSU
Darren McFadden, RB Arkansas
Matt Ryan, QB Boston College
Vernon Gholston, DE Ohio State
Of that group only Gholston has a shot to drop to the 7th pick and if he did I think the Pats will take him. But most likely he’ll be gone and I’ll be sad.
2) The Patriots will select a player at #7 and not trade down even though the likelihood of a trade down is extremely high.
3) Roger Goodell won’t decide at the last minute to dock this pick as well because the Patriots are just too awesome.
Those are the assumptions I am making before choosing my pick. Next are the reasons why they won’t pick who the mock drafts have them picking.
Any Cornerback – (Leodis McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Mike Jenkins, Aqib Talib) Why not just pay Asante Samuel instead of drafting an unproven rookie and having to give him similar money? Samuel got 6-years, $57 million with $20 million guaranteed. Last years 7th overall pick DB Michael Huff got 6-years, $43 million with $15 million guaranteed. Not exactly the same numbers but they’re close enough when you’re considering a proven NFL veteran coming off a Pro Bowl and a rookie who’s never played a down. Corners are often hit or miss and with the kind of money the 7th overall pick will get it’s too risky on a position that is clearly not the most valuable for the Pats defense.
Sedrick Ellis, DL USC – I think all the whispers over the past couple weeks about the Pats being interested in Ellis are just a smoke screen. Lots of other teams are rumored to be enamored of him and by the Pats feigning interest it could force other teams to trade up and take him. That could allow someone like Vernon Gholston to slide.
Size-wise Ellis looks only capable of playing Nose Tackle in the 3-4, and the Pats are pretty set there with Vince Wilfork who many feel is the best 3-4 middleman in the NFL. Ellis is also a good 5 to 6 inches shorter than all of the current Patriots Defensive Ends so it already looks like his versatility would be crippled in the Pats defense.
Ellis is a prototypical 4-3 Defensive Lineman. He’s got great speed to get to the Quarterback but that’s not what the Patriots defense requires. Playing him at Nose Tackle would not take advantage of his strengths, he doesn’t have the size to occupy two blockers at Defensive End and thus he’s not worth taking 7th overall because he just doesn’t fit into New England’s scheme.
Keith Rivers, LB USC – I like Rivers and while I think he has an outside shot at #7 there are a lot of questions out there of how much he benefited from being surrounded by top-tier Linebackers at USC. He’d be a perfect pick around #20 but it’s hard to pay him that much money when it’s so difficult to project how he’ll fit into the Patriots defense. Maybe he can be made into an ILB in the Pats 3-4 but part of the knock on him is his inability to disengage blockers, something that is vital for an ILB in the 3-4. Still he might be versatile enough to play some Outside Linebacker as well so the Pats could be interested in him. I’d rank him as the second most-likely selection.
Derrick Harvey, DE Florida – Of all the “tweeners” Harvey has the most question marks as to whether or not he can stand up and play OLB in the 3-4. Though he seemingly has the kind of character the Pats like he’s better suited as a 4-3 Defensive End.
Quentin Groves, DE Auburn - As much as I love the idea of the Pats picking up a pass rushing terror I’m just not sure Groves is worthy of 7th overall. I also wonder if he has the football smarts for Belichick’s defense. As I said a few weeks ago in the blog Groves is my boo, I’d love to have him on the team, in fact I think my heart wants this guy more than just about anyone not named Man-Beast Gholston. But my head says he’s just not as good as my heart wants him to be (and also that his heart isn’t as healthy as it should be). Some scouts don’t even have him ranked in the top 50.
That covers just about all the most popular mock draft picks. So now here’s who I think they’ll take….
With the 7th overall selection in the 2008 NFL Entry Draft the New England Patriots select:
Branden Albert, G/T Virginia
Alright, don’t go nuts on me just yet and let me explain why. Albert is a monster, he can play either tackle or guard, he’s young and has had zero injury concerns. Plus by all accounts he’s a model teammate. I know in previous blogs I didn’t think the Pats would take an Offensive Lineman at #7 but upon further reflection I think it makes sense. Albert seems as close as you can get to a sure thing. He would instantly stabilize the right side of the Patriots line and would be the key protector of Tom Brady as his career winds down. Albert has unequaled size and speed, and he would excel getting downfield and blocking the screen passes the Pats like to run. Of all the prospects likely to be available at #7 Albert is the safest bet and an excellent investment.
Yes, the Pats biggest needs are Linebacker and Cornerback but there are lots of prospects in this years draft at those positions. While they don’t have ideal depth currently on the roster at LB or CB if the season started tomorrow they’d still field a pretty solid defense. Add in a second round OLB and a third round Cornerback and the Pats would be looking pretty good.
Albert is a smart, safe move that will protect the franchise Quarterback until he retires and you can’t put a price tag on keeping Tom Brady healthy.
+++Note - Upon doing some internet browsing tonight i watched nfl.com's latest piece on the Pats (http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d807d5311) and it echoes what I wrote in this blog. I had to mention I didn't see it before I wrote what's above. I'm not some hack who watches NFL.com and regurgitates what he hears into his blog. Instead take it as a positive that I know what I'm talking about. :) ++++
Keywords: New England Patriots Draft Prediction 7th Overall Branden Albert Quentin Groves Vernon Gholston Sedrick Ellis
Comments
Hey Mike,
Personally I have a hard time with a player that shoots up draft boards late. If he was really that good, he would had caught the attention of experts long time ago instead of impressing in workouts, making scouts and analysts go back to video and change their grades. Alberts went from a second rounder to top 10 in less than a month. That screams at me workout warrior: Performs great in the weight room and during drills, but is nowhere near the player he should be based on his display. I have a bad memory of Eugene Chung being touted as an anchor to the line but being more famous for dating a cheerleader.
Alberts is an interior lineman. While important, he's not left tackle important. And for the people who say the Pats O-line was exposed in the Super Bowl, shouldn't the line had been a weakness all year long if it wasn't that good? It's one game. Few, if any, teams can match the Giants' personell on the D-line. Remember that's Justin Tuck, a DE, playing tackle. He will be Strahan's successor in another year or so, if not sooner. If Tuck and Umenyora are outside, then the tackles won't generate the pressure Tuck did.
You're not the only person to say Alberts for the Patriots. I just feel uneasy about that selection. --Randolph
Hey Randolph,
Thanks for reading. I hear your concerns but I'm not so sure the Pats haven't had Albert ranked this high all along. It wasn't necessarily that he tore it up at the combine and suddenly made a name for himself, I think recently as scouts studied more film they've seen more of how good Albert is. This film study also seems to be responsible for why somone like Vernon Gholston is falling a bit. Who knows, it might all just be posturing and smoke screens. I really like your pick Keith Rivers and as I said I really think it's between him and Albert at #7. I'm not overreacting to the pressure the Giants got in the Super Bowl, I just think that Albert would improve the Patriots and the more protection for Brady the better. As always thanks for your comments. I can't believe we've got to wait another week for this thing...